Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-29 0.014813 0.016778 0.018910 0.021395 0.024214 0.027314 0.030982
2025-07-06 0.011182 0.013757 0.016791 0.020633 0.025375 0.031043 0.038344
2025-07-13 0.009795 0.012750 0.016435 0.021373 0.027831 0.036009 0.047180
2025-07-20 0.008747 0.011923 0.016071 0.021895 0.029884 0.040489 0.055696
2025-07-27 0.007997 0.011347 0.015899 0.022554 0.032068 0.045233 0.064923
2025-08-03 0.007146 0.010505 0.015235 0.022405 0.033041 0.048309 0.072026
2025-08-10 0.006481 0.009842 0.014730 0.022387 0.034136 0.051581 0.079635
2025-08-17 0.005823 0.009109 0.014035 0.021987 0.034576 0.053860 0.085882
2025-08-24 0.005416 0.008714 0.013798 0.022243 0.036012 0.057733 0.094913
2025-08-31 0.004972 0.008211 0.013338 0.022086 0.036748 0.060527 0.102407
2025-09-07 0.004716 0.007987 0.013297 0.022591 0.038588 0.065228 0.113454
2025-09-14 0.004255 0.007377 0.012564 0.021864 0.038270 0.066280 0.118300
2025-09-21 0.003916 0.006951 0.012115 0.021602 0.038761 0.068800 0.126060
2025-09-28 0.003533 0.006415 0.011432 0.020866 0.038345 0.069697 0.130980
2025-10-05 0.003420 0.006351 0.011569 0.021612 0.040672 0.075693 0.145883
2025-10-12 0.003283 0.006229 0.011591 0.022140 0.042630 0.081158 0.160263
2025-10-19 0.003175 0.006151 0.011683 0.022806 0.044897 0.087383 0.176685
2025-10-26 0.002971 0.005871 0.011370 0.022656 0.045550 0.090537 0.187224
2025-11-02 0.002801 0.005643 0.011136 0.022637 0.046459 0.094252 0.199232
2025-11-09 0.002601 0.005338 0.010729 0.022233 0.046538 0.096291 0.207888
2025-11-16 0.002489 0.005204 0.010649 0.022492 0.048013 0.101308 0.223372
2025-11-23 0.002344 0.004986 0.010381 0.022333 0.048584 0.104466 0.235053
2025-11-30 0.002273 0.004921 0.010426 0.022844 0.050643 0.110968 0.254804